How reliable is it?
How can a map know the future?
It does not predict the future. It answers a narrower question: where will the climate be like the climate this organism lives in today? The model learns from real records which temperatures and rainfall the organism is found in. Climate models then project what each place will be like around 2050 or 2100 under the chosen emissions future, and places that will feel like the organism’s current homes are shaded as suitable.
Whether the organism actually gets there depends on things the model does not know, such as whether it can travel that far, find food, or share the place with competitors. That is why there is a dispersal setting, and why every map says “suitable climate, not a forecast”.
About the emissions futures
The four choices are named after the IPCC scenarios (SSPs): low emissions SSP1-2.6, middle SSP2-4.5, high SSP3-7.0 and very high SSP5-8.5. “Around 2050” means the 20-year average 2041–2060, “around 2100” means 2081–2100, so one unusual year does not skew it.
About this model
Educational use
This shows projected climate suitability for organisms, not where they will live. Land use, soils, other species and chance matter too. Not for planting, farming or land decisions. Methods and credits.